2010 State Championship game predictions

Class 1A championship: Tuscola (12-1) vs. Lena-Winslow (12-1).

The Warriors are playing in their fourth title game in five years, and Tuscola fans will tell you it should probably be their fifth. Only a fumbled snap in 2008 kept the Warriors from that state title game, and Tuscola is 2-1 in the state championship since its first appearance. Le-Win's triple threat rushing attack keeps this game close, but I think Tuscola knows what it takes to grab another trophy.

Tuscola 27, Lena-Winslow 17.

Class 2A championship: Maroa-Forsyth (11-2) vs. Sterling Newman Central Catholic (13-0).

Newman almost beat Stillman Valley in the 3A playoffs last year, returned a large crop of players to this season's team and beat defending 2A champion Morrison twice this year — most recently in the state quarterfinals. The OVC-based Trojans were clipped by St. Teresa and somehow lost to Central A&M during the regular season before regrouping in November. I think their luck runs out against Newman.

Newman 33, Maroa-Forsyth 21.

Class 3A championship: Illini West (13-0) vs. Stillman Valley (13-0).

Two the state's best small schools programs battle it out in the 3A title game. The Cardinals had to survive Unity to get here, and Illini West handled Mount Carmel to reach the state finals for the tenth time. Stillman Valley is 4-0 in state title games, Illini West is 5-4. I won't be watching this one in person, but I'll definitely be checking it out on the TV after the holiday. I think it goes down to the wire.

Stillman Valley 30, Illini West 27.

Class 4A championship: Rochester (13-0) vs. Rock Island Alleman (13-0).

Rochester was ranked No. 1 all of last season and put up some spectacular offensive statistics before losing to Metamora on a failed two-point conversion in the state semifinals. The Cardinals then rolled to another state title. When the two teams met last Saturday, the Rockets got their revenge and then some. Rochester rolled 50-17, and I think they do the same thing against Alleman.

Rochester 41, Alleman 24.

Class 5A championship: Chatham Glenwood (10-3) vs. Lombard Montini (11-2).

Glenwood is the biggest underdog to reach the state finals since Montini last year. The Titans were just 6-3 during the regular year. They lost their first two games by a combined score of 75-14, and were hammered 49-21 by Rochester. But something has clicked for them since. Montini went 5-4 last year before making a miracle run to the state title. Glenwood's story is nice, but I don't think Montini gives up its crown.

Montini 38, Glenwood 13.

Class 6A championship: Aurora Marmion Academy (12-1) vs. Rockford Boylan (13-0).

For area football fans, you know this was supposed to be Danville's game. The Vikings were the No. 1-ranked team in 6A all year and coasted to a 12-0 mark entering last week's game against Marmion.  Then the Cadets went out and whooped them. Marmion's schedule is brutal, and they've been tested for this game. Neither team has won a state title, so this will be milestone for one.

Marmion 20, Boylan 14.

Class 7A championship: Wheaton Warrenville South (13-0) vs. Lake Zurich (12-1).

Warrenville has been the state's top-ranked team all season (over all classes), and is nationally ranked. The Tigers are the defending state champs, and their quarterback (Reilly O'Toole) is a UI recruit. Everything about this game signals a blowout win for the Tigers. But Lake Zurich has earned the right to be here. The Bears won the state title in 2007 and reached the semis last fall.

Warrenville South 41, Lake Zurich 22.

Class 8A championship: Maine South (11-2) vs. Chicago Mount Carmel (11-2).

I don't think there were many people out there that expected Maine South to be playing in this game after starting the year 0-2. The two-time defending champs opened the season with a loss to Schaumburg then were hammered 44-7 by Warrenville South. The Hawks are 11-0 since then, and they look tough. Mount Carmel has played in 13 state title games under Frank Lenti, but the Caravan haven't won a title since 2002.

Maine South 29, Mount Carmel 23.

Semifinal playoff picks

Unity (11-1) at Stillman Valley (12-0), 2 p.m. Saturday.

Last meeting: Stillman Valley def. Unity, 52-22 (Nov. 27, 2009).

This is not a great matchup for the Rockets.  Unity has made strides since last year's game against the Cardinals, but so have they. Stillman Valley hasn't been threatened all season and hammered a really good Aurora Christian team from the Suburban Christian Conference last week. The Cardinals are averaging nearly 44 points per game and with a dominant offensive line, they haven't met a team they couldn't overpower. Unity's defense is a lot better than last year. The Rockets have made schematic changes with a team like Stillman Valley in mind. Unity is stiffer up front, and the Rockets are shutting down running teams that would have put together decent games against them last year. It's just, Unity hasn't seen anything like the Valley. Stillman is so big and strong. The Cardinals are a well-coached, mistake-free unit that has leveled 12 straight teams. Unity hasn't seen anything like them since last year's loss.

Someway, somehow, the Rockets need to force turnovers to stay in this game. Stillman Valley is going to move the ball and its going to score. The Cardinals might not score 52 like last year, but don't expect a Unity shutout. If the Rockets can keep Stillman Valley to one score per quarter, and force a turnover here and there they really should have a chance. Unity's offense hasn't scored like it did last fall even though this team has more versatility than last year's unit. The Rockets can spread the field and have four established runners to move the ball. They should be able to score. It will be up to the Rockets' defense to decide if their scores will be enough. That's a tough task against anyone as good as Stillman Valley.

Stillman Valley 34, Unity 21.

Quarterfinal playoff picks

Unity (10-1) at. St. Joseph-Ogden (9-2), 7 p.m. Saturday.

Last meeting: St. Joseph-Ogden def. Unity, 21-17 (Nov. 4, 2006).

Well, it's taken four years to get to this point, but the Unity vs. SJ-O rivalry will finally be rekindled Saturday night in St. Joseph. The 10-1 Rockets are coming to town to face the 9-2 Spartans, and both communities couldn't be more excited.

Admittedly, I've had a hard time making a decision on this game. I've seen both teams multiple times this year, and I know what each team's strengths and weaknesses are. I know the Spartans are the smaller team, and I know the Rockets have more team speed. I know SJ-O coach Dick Duval is going to ask his offensive line to control the game for Jake Bock. Unity coach Scott Hamilton is going to lean on his defensive line to neutralize Bock's tackle-breaking abilities and keep the Spartans in third and long. Unity will also try to spread the ball around to four players (Michael Lafenhagen, Seth Gooch, Taylor Black and Micah Johnson) to move downfield, meaning the SJ-O defense needs to maintain its assignments on every play to keep the Rockets from springing long scoring runs.

According to their record and their seed, Unity is the favorite in this game. I think that's fair. The Rockets have traversed an awfully tough schedule to get to this point, and I would argue their two wins over St. Teresa are the best wins either team has this season. Unity played for the state title last year, and a lot of those Rockets have returned to anchor this team. The Rockets have won 26 of 28 games.

SJ-O can win this game, but the Spartans will need to catch a few breaks. St. Teresa used a pair of special teams plays to stay with Unity in the first half last week and pulled ahead in the third quarter with a defensive stop. I think the Spartans will need to follow a similar script Saturday. SJ-O will need to take advantage of toss up plays, be solid on special teams and try to keep its offense on the field as much as possible. When the Spartans are on defense, they need to keep Unity from third-and-short and fourth-and-short situations where Hamilton can rely on his line to pick up easy first downs. 

No matter how this goes down, I think it will be close. Unity is 2-1 against the Spartans in their last three playoff games, but the Rockets have only outscored SJ-O 56-55 in those games. Rivalry games are close, and I expect this one to be just that. Good luck to both teams.

Unity 28, St. Joseph-Ogden 21.

Second round playoff picks

St. Joseph-Ogden (8-2) at St. Thomas More (6-4), 1 p.m. Saturday.
Last meeting: St. Joseph-Ogden def. St. Thomas More, 41-7 (Oct. 1, 2010).

I know what you're thinking, 'Did I just fall in a wormhole and go back in time?' Ok, maybe you weren't thinking that at all, but with both of this week's games rematches of week six tilts, there is definitely a feeling of deja vu around SJ-O and Unity this week. The Spartans will head on the road Saturday to beat a team they whooped at home five weeks ago. St. Thomas More has gotten much better since then. The Sabers started running the ball again last week, and in their last three wins they're allowing just 12.3 points per game.

The Sabers' problem is in their four losses, they've allowed 44.5 points per game. St. Joseph-Ogden coasted to 41 points against the Sabers in week six and called off the dogs late to keep the score from getting worse. STM's defense isn't the best tackling bunch in the state, and that bodes well for the Spartans. I think this game will be closer than week six since the Sabers' offense has improved, but I don't think SJ-O loses this game. The Spartans know what they're up against and most importantly, they're just better.

St. Joseph-Ogden 39, St. Thomas More 21.

St. Teresa (8-2) at Unity (9-1), 1 p.m. Saturday.
Last meeting: Unity def. St. Teresa, 22-21 (Oct. 1, 2010).

This game was a thriller in Decatur a month ago, and probably will be another great game Saturday in Tolono. Unity was outplayed by St. Teresa for most of last month's game but rallied in the final five minutes with two clutch drives. The Rockets sped up their offensive attack late in that game, forcing St. Teresa to play more conservatively on defense. Unity was able to move the ball against the Bulldogs after they dropped back into coverage.

Unity will try to move the ball fast again in this game like they did last week and in week six against the Bulldogs. The Rockets' offense was dominant in the second half against Monticello and will be back to near full strength Saturday. St. Teresa's offense, on the other hand, has some key injuries. The Bulldogs are missing their starting tailback and may be without their quarterback against the Rockets. St. Teresa's defense has been the best in the Okaw and should keep them in the game. Unity should still win it.

Unity 21, St. Teresa 14.