Week six football predictions

St. Thomas More (3-2) at St. Joseph-Ogden (3-2), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: St. Thomas More def. St. Joseph-Ogden, 20-19 (Oct. 2, 2009).

This could be an enormous win for SJ-O — if the Spartans can get it. The Spartans and Sabers come into this game with identical 3-2 records looking to make a major climb toward the playoffs. The winner of this game will move to 4-2 and most assuredly grab a postseason berth. At 3-3, the loser will be in a tight spot. Both of these teams can get into the playoffs at 5-4 due to their playoff points, but no one wants to be in that position.

For SJ-O to win this game, the Spartans need to dominate the line of scrimmage. The STM defense is fast but can't tackle, so if SJ-O's line can give its running backs room to run, the Spartans will score points. On the defensive side of the ball, the Spartans need to shut down the middle of the field and force the Sabers to the outside. SJ-O can't allow Friday's game to become a shootout, not as a one-dimensional offensive team. Lock down the lines, and SJ-O will lock up a win.

St. Joseph-Ogden 26, St. Thomas More 22.

No. 4 Unity (4-1) at No. 8 St. Teresa (4-1), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: Unity def. St. Teresa, 33-14 (Oct. 2, 2009).

This one will be a battle. Two power running teams going at it for OVC black supremacy and staying in contention for the OVC crown. This game could go either way. Both teams have shown the ability to score and each squad has significantly improved their defense in the past season. The key to this game, like most close games, will be turnovers. Unity has forced a lot in their four wins, but they were negative three in their week four loss to Tuscola.

If Unity takes care of the ball, it will be able to score. The Rockets won't score 61 like last week, but they will find the end zone. The Rockets' attack is too versatile and too experienced to get completely shut down by the Bulldogs. It will be interesting to see if St. Teresa can do the same. The Bulldogs' offense isn't as diverse as Unity's, but it's been scoring a lot of points for a long time.

No. 4 Unity 28, No. 8 St. Teresa 17.

Arthur-Lovington (0-5) at East Central (1-4), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: Arthur-Lovington def. East Central, 33-6 (Oct. 9, 2009).

The Panthers have an excellent chance to win this game. East Central has had a rough year, that's obvious, but the Panthers still have some talent on their sideline. For as much as the Panthers have struggled, Arthur-Lovington has struggled even more. The Knights can barely field a team, and have several less active players than East Central. For the first time all season, the Panthers enter a game with a significant depth advantage.

That could be huge in a game between two stumbling teams. Technically the Panthers still have postseason hope. They haven't lost five games yet, so as long as they keep winning they can stay in contention. A-L is done, and is playing out the string. I don't think the season is going to miraculously turn around in this game for the Panthers, but I think they could postpone their inevitable elimination.

East Central 26, Arthur-Lovington 14.

Week five football predictions

Iroquois West (2-2) at St. Joseph-Ogden (2-2), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: St. Joseph-Ogden def. Iroquois West, 33-0 (Sept. 25, 2009).

Well it's Homecoming at St. Joseph-Ogden this week. The Spartans will be honoring the 20th anniversary of their 1990 state champion girls cross country team at Friday's game and again at Saturday's Spartan Classic. The stands will be packed with blue and maroon fans, and the Spartan faithful will be excited to root SJ-O to victory.

But will they? SJ-O got clobbered at Clifton last week and enters Friday's game on a two-game losing streak. The Spartans have put plenty of roadblocks in front of them in their quest to the playoffs, and this game against the Raiders won't be easy. Iroquois West doesn't have the strongest offense in the state, but the Raiders have played well defensively. SJ-O couldn't move the ball at all last week. The team had a general malaise from the first quarter on, and it showed. The Spartans have to get back on the right track this week. It's Homecoming; the Spartans want these memories to be positive ones. If Friday doesn't go well, this whole season is in danger.

St. Joseph-Ogden 14, Iroquois West 13.

Sullivan-Okaw Valley (2-2) at No. 5 Unity (3-1), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: Unity def. Sullivan-Okaw Valley, 53-12 (Sept. 25, 2009).

This has been a beatdown in recent years. This season, early indications show this could end up being quite a game. Sullivan is one of the top-scoring offenses in the area and the Redskins are coming off a 61-point performance last week. For the first time in years, the Redskins have excitement in their program, and combined with a large roster the team is starting to play up to its potential. That's a good sign both for Sullivan and the Okaw Valley. The Redskins' program hasn't always been so down. It would be nice to have another quality team for the conference to lean on.

That said, Unity will still be heavy favorites in this game. The Rockets played well but were bitten by the turnover bug in last week's loss at Tuscola. Assuming they can avoid that fate this week, they should win easily. Sullivan is going to score points, but they're going to allow a ton.

No. 5 Unity 44, Sullivan 23.

East Central (1-3) at Cerro Gordo (1-3), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: Cerro Gordo def. East Central, 20-14 (Oct. 2, 2009).

At this point in the season, East Central could use a break. Not a week off kind of break, a lucky bounce break. The Panthers are down on their luck, and their lack of confidence is seeping out into their performance on the field. East Central needs some good vibes, and it needs it soon before the Panthers' season collapses around them.

This is a winnable game for both teams. East Central hasn't been in the 'W' column since week one and Cerro Gordo just arrived there last week. Neither team is dominant; neither team is confident. At this point in the season, both squads need a 4-1 finish to even have a chance at the postseason. Simply put, this is a game for pride. A chance for two struggling programs to start feeling better about themselves. It's a chance for a building block.

Cerro Gordo 19, East Central 13.

Week four football predictions

St. Joseph-Ogden (2-1) at Clifton Central (2-1), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: St. Joseph-Ogden def. Clifton Central, 37-9 (Sept. 18, 2009).

What was already a big game got even bigger last week with St. Joseph-Ogden's 19-18 loss to Momence. Now the Spartans are a game back in the Sangamon Valley Conference race and heading into the toughest portion of their season without their starting and second-string quarterbacks. That's not a good place to be. The Spartans can't afford to fall two games back in a six-game conference race, and a 2-2 record puts them on the outside of the playoffs looking in through four weeks.

I still think the Spartans have a good team, but if they're expected to play the rest of their season with their third-string quarterback, they're going to need to win games differently than they did in weeks one and two. It's doubtful new quarterback Louis Acklin will come in and pull a Tom Brady for the Spartans' offense. They aren't going to suddenly get better. SJ-O is going to rely more on its running game, all-state tailback Jake Bock and its defensive unit.

The Spartans are up against the wall today, but I think they'll come out fighting. There is a lot of talent on this team, even if they're down two quarterbacks.

St. Joseph-Ogden 22, Clifton Central 20.

No. 3 Unity (3-0) at No. 1 Tuscola (3-0), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: Unity def. Tuscola, 22-13 (Sept. 18, 2009).

This will be an epic, knock-down drag-out brawl that comes down to the final minute ... Or, one team will win by 30. I don't see it going any other way. Tuscola is the unanimous No. 1 team in Class 1A and Unity is ranked third in 3A. Both teams have explosive offenses, and Tuscola's four-wide spread is operating as well as it has in three years. Unity is once again running all over the field behind a mammoth offensive line, throwing the ball on occasion with quick strikes and play action.

The key to this game is defenses. Last year Unity's defense played one of its best games of the season in helping the Rockets take down the Warriors; keeping Unity undefeated in spite of a rough offensive night. I think Tuscola's defense had more horses in 2009 than it has in 2010. I think Unity has more horses now than it had 365 days ago. I think that gives the Rockets the edge. But it's a slight edge.

No. 3 Unity 27, No. 1 Tuscola 23.

Arcola (2-1) at East Central (1-2), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: Arcola def. East Central, 41-6 (Sept. 25, 2009).

East Central needs this game. Badly. The Panthers are coming off back-to-back beatdowns and need to get on the right track. Arcola's offense hasn't shown an ability to score all season, so the Panthers should be in a close game. My question is, can their defense respond?

East Central needs to come out and play well defensively. The Panthers have to keep the Purple Riders within their sights, making them drives long distances to score and keeping them from easy touchdowns. East Central can't rally back if it falls behind by 21 early, Arcola's defense is too good. The Panthers need to stay close and competitive through the early portion of the game, then try to win it in the fourth quarter. I'm giving Arcola the edge, but East Central can win this game.

Arcola 22, East Central 12.

Week three football predictions

Momence (1-1) at No. 4 St. Joseph-Ogden (2-0), 7 p.m. Friday.
Last meeting: St. Joseph-Ogden def. Momence, 47-0 (Sept. 11, 2009).

I don't think this game goes down the way last year's did in Momence. The Redskins are much improved, and enter this season with considerably less turmoil than they had in 2009. Momence has relied on a powerful defense through the season's first two games, losing last week in overtime on a missed extra point. The Redskins couldn't stop anyone last fall, so it's good to see they're back to being competitive.

Even with their improved defense I still think Momence is a hefty underdog in this game. SJ-O played one of it's best halves of football in years in the second half against Carterville last week, and the Spartans' offense has rung up 11 touchdowns through two games. SJ-O is going to spread the field and move the ball, it will be up to the Redskins' offense to keep up with them. I don't know if they can. Momence has skill players, just not enough overall offensive talent.

No. 4 St. Joseph-Ogden 30, Momence 7.

Warrensburg-Latham (0-2) at No. 3 Unity (2-0), 7 p.m. Friday.
Last meeting: Unity def. Warrensburg-Latham, 45-12 (Sept. 11, 2009).

This thing could get ugly. And fast. Warrensburg-Latham has been outscored 70-7 in the first two weeks of the season and Unity has scored 72 points. The Rockets ran all over Central A&M in week one and Argenta-Oreana last week, and both of those teams had better defenses than the Cardinals. Warrensburg-Latham's coach was suspended after the team's week one loss, so the team is playing with an interim head coach for the rest of the season.

Against a Unity team with this much firepower, I think that's a recipe for disaster. The Rockets are going to score a lot of points this week, and unless they get caught looking -- no, openly staring -- ahead that week four bout with Tuscola, they will roll the Cardinals. Warrensburg just doesn't have it this year.

No. 3 Unity 52, Warrensburg-Latham 6.

East Central (1-1) at Villa Grove (2-0), 7 p.m. Friday.
Last meeting: Villa Grove def. East Central, 62-24 (Sept. 18, 2009).

I think East Central is better this year than they were last year. I haven't seen them, but my third-hand sources think the Panthers are improving. The team has a coaching staff that knows what it's doing, and in time they should have this program turned around. I really think East Central is on the way up. Win this game and we'll be able to see it.

Unfortunately, winning this game won't be easy. The Blue Devils are the class of the Little Okaw Valley and should roll through their conference season. Depending on the strength of the Arcola and Tri-County programs, there is a chance Villa Grove could run the table this year. Can East Central beat them? Of course. Is it likely? I really don't think so.

Villa Grove 41, East Central 13.

Week two football predictions

Carterville (1-0) at No. 5 St. Joseph-Ogden (1-0), 1:30 p.m. Saturday

Last meeting: None on record.

Saturday's bout between the Spartans and the Carterville Lions will pit two long-time powerhouses against each other for the first time. SJ-O has played in four state title games, while Carterville won the 1996 Class 3A state title.

Based off week one results, the game will pit the Spartans' high-powered offense against a dominant Carterville defense. Naturally, in a game like that, it will probably come down to the SJ-O defense and the Carterville offense. SJ-O gave up 345 yards rushing at LeRoy; the Spartans will need to play better up front against the Lions. If SJ-O can do more on the defensive line of scrimmage, they will have an edge.

No. 5 St. Joseph-Ogden 26, Carterville 14.

No. 3 Unity (1-0) at Argenta-Oreana (1-0), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: Unity def. Argenta-Oreana, 35-13 (Sept. 4, 2009).

This game was a battle last year in spite of the score, and Argenta-Oreana is hoping to return to the playoffs this fall after a three-year hiatus. The Bombers are in their last year under retiring head coach Tom Saunches, and A-O wants to send Saunches out in style. A-O has played in the state semfinals under Saunches in the past, so the program knows what it takes to beat good teams.

The 2010 Unity Rockets are a good team. Unity shut down the Central A&M offense and moved the ball at will against the Raiders last week, and they will expect to do the same this Friday against A-O. I think the Bombers are getting better, and I think they can make a playoff run this year if things break right. But I don't know if they can beat Unity. They're going to need some lucky bounces.

No. 3 Unity 38, Argenta-Oreana 15.

East Central (1-0) at Georgetown-Ridge Farm (1-0), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: None on record.

I don't know how these two schools, separated by only 25 miles, haven't played more in the past. The IHSA has a record of every high school football game dating back to 1996 and according to their records, these schools have never met up. Hopefully this season can trigger a yearly rivalry.

I think the Panthers' defense is the key to this game. Georgetown-Ridge Farm scored 46 points last week against Arthur, but the Knights don't have much of a roster this year. The Arthur football program has fallen on rough times. East Central's program is growing. They have something to play for this year, and winning this game would be huge. If East Central can start 2-0, they will be able to start looking at their schedule as navigable to reach a playoff berth. This game is the start.

East Central 22, Georgetown-Ridge Farm 20.