Massey Ratings playoff predictions

CHAMPAIGN — The Massey Ratings computer index is used by HighSchoolSports.com to rate football teams by their strength of schedule, conference alignment and home and road records. The Massey Ratings are used to create power polls of all classes of football during the season, and predict future games in the postseason. Last year's Massey Ratings computer index correctly picked the winners of the Class 3A quarterfinals, semifinals and state championship game. This year's playoff predictions are visible below, or by clicking this link.

First round playoff predictions

Paris (5-4) at St. Joseph-Ogden (7-2), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: St. Joseph-Ogden def. Paris, 66-0 (Oct. 21, 2005).

I've been researching this Paris teams for three days and I have to say, they look a lot better than your typical 5-4 team. The Tigers dropped their first three games this season to playoff teams, then responded by winning five of six to make the postseason. Paris plays in the 3A and 4A heavy Apollo Conference, and six of their nine games came against teams with enrollments of 750-plus students. The Tigers have been in a playoff-type atmosphere for two months; a 7-2 SJ-O team isn't going to intimidate them in the least.

The Spartans need to come to play defensively to beat Paris. The Tigers are averaging nearly 30 points per game since week four and have a multi-faceted run and pass attack. SJ-O hasn't defended the pass well at all in recent weeks. The Spartans were torched at Orion and gave up multiple long passes against PBL. I expect Paris to open up on the ground and try to ease its way into the passing attack. Once the Tigers get comfortable, they will probably throw the ball a lot. SJ-O will need to get pressure on their quarterback to avoid a shootout. The Spartans' run-heavy offense isn't designed for a shootout.

St. Joseph-Ogden 40, Paris 21.

Monticello (5-4) at Unity (8-1), 1 p.m. Saturday.

Last meeting: Unity def. Monticello, 24-21 OT (Oct. 8, 2010).

There isn't much to say about this game you don't already know. Monticello darn near beat the Rockets three weeks ago. Unity didn't play well during that game and when the Sages grabbed the momentum, they were tough to stop. It took a gut-wrenching fumble at the goal line by Monticello's Ryan Donohue to give Unity the overtime win. I expect Unity to play better this week than they did at Monticello, and having Saturday's game at home should be an advantage. 

The Rockets really don't need to do anything special to beat this Monticello team. The Sages don't throw the ball very well and their defense has been more than suspect this year. Unity simply has to play better on the line of scrimmage. The Rockets were abused in the trenches on both sides of the ball in week seven, and the Unity coaching staff responded by putting the Rockets' linemen through a grueling week of practice before week eight. Unity's first-string units have outscored  their opposition 84-0 since then. If the Rockets keep doing what they're doing, they'll be fine.

Unity 34, Monticello 14.

Week nine football predictions

Paxton-Buckley-Loda (3-5) at St. Joseph-Ogden (6-2), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: St. Joseph-Ogden def. PBL, 36-20 (Oct. 23, 2009).

The Spartans are playing for a week ten home game in their final regular season action of the year. PBL comes in on a four-game losing streak. The Panthers were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week and will not have a winning season. Earlier in the year this game looked like a potential playoff battle, now it's a little one-sided. The Spartans are playing at a very high level right now. PBL will be hard pressed to match it.

SJ-O is going to be favored in this game and it should be. PBL will put up a fight like Orion did last week, but eventually I expect the Spartans' talent and offensive firepower to be too much for the Panthers. The Spartans were 6-2 and were inn the exact same position last year against the Panthers and went to Paxton and won. Playing at home this Friday, I think there's no reason for us not to expect the same.

St. Joseph-Ogden 41, PBL 14.

No. 3 Unity (7-1) at Shelbyville (2-6), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: Unity def. Shelbyville, 40-6 (Oct. 23, 2009).

Unity will probably open the first round of the playoffs at home anyway, but a win Friday on the road will guarantee the Rockets an opening round game in Tolono. Shelbyville has struggled massively this year, so the Rockets have an excellent chance to pick up a quick win Friday and head into the postseason at 8-1. The Rockets' starters will probably only play a fraction of the game, and when the result is no longer in doubt, expect the Rockets' JV to see the field.

Shelbyville hasn't been able to stop anyone all season. Unity will probably score on a lot of possessions Friday and most drives shouldn't take long. My biggest concern for the Rockets from an X's and O's standpoint is their defense. Unity's D played well during the regular season last year but tired in the postseason. This year's group has played even better than the 2009 unit. Let's hope they can maintain their current level of intensity starting in week ten.

No. 3 Unity 48, Shelbyville 7.

South Piatt (3-5) at East Central (3-5), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: South Piatt def. East Central, 34-12 (Sept. 11, 2009).

This game is for pride for East Central and South Piatt. Neither team is making the playoffs, so ending the season with a win is the best reward for this season they can earn. The Panthers gave it a valiant run with wins in weeks six and seven to keep their playoff hopes alive. Last week's loss to Tri-County was a disappointing one, there's no doubt, but let's face, the Titans were a much better team.

South Piatt is much better than their 3-5 record, but the Wildcats aren't Tri-County. South Piatt has three blowout wins and several close losses. The Wildcats have scored 31 points for than they've allowed, and they've lost their last four games by a combined 18 points. East Central will need to play well to beat this team. The Wildcats aren't consistent at all, but they're talented. If East Central isn't focused the Wildcats could be very tough.

South Piatt 34, East Central 19.

SJ-O soccer falls in thriller

CATLIN — The last game of the season didn't go the way the SJ-O soccer team wanted it to; but at least the Spartans went out fighting.

Salt Fork forward Jordan Romo snuck a goal past SJ-O backup goalie Dan Schuele with two minutes remaining in double overtime as the Storm topped the Spartans 2-1 in IHSA Class 1A soccer regional action Wednesday.

St. Joseph-Ogden lost 4-1 to the Storm last month at home and entered Tuesday's match on a three-week losing streak. The Spartans played better at the end of the regular season than the beginning, but a stiffer schedule kept them out of the win column.

Looking for their program's first ever postseason win, the Spartans pushed the Storm to the brink.

"I didn't want us to come out here and be flat and we weren't, we battled this team to the end of double overtime," SJ-O coach Richard Vetter said. "Obviously it hurts because it's a loss, but you can't ask the kids to play any harder. They laid it all on the line."

Austin Baker scored for SJ-O in an exciting first half. Tied 1-1 at the break, the teams played to a draw in the second period. SJ-O had two quality shots on goal in the final five minutes of regulation but was unable to capitalize.

Romo finally did for Salt Fork in overtime, sneaking through a golden goal more than two hours after the opening kick.

This is the first year the IHSA has used sudden death in playoff overtime games. Up until this year, the IHSA held two 10-minutes overtime periods then went to a shootout.

Vetter said the rule change forced the Spartans to alter their strategy.

"I thought we were going to get 20 (minutes), so I thought we would still have some time to score," Vetter said. "We kind of needed to drop back a little more on defense while still trying to be aggressive on offense."

SJ-O finishes the year 4-17-1. Vetter knows the Spartans' record wasn't great, but he is optimistic for the group he'll return in 2011. SJ-O played better than its record indicated and

Vetter said they always played hard.

"If we continue to work as hard this next summer as we did this past summer, I think we'll be able to be pretty good," he said.

Unity falls in soccer regionals

WARRENSBURG — Sometimes the third time isn't the charm.

The Unity soccer team dropped its third match of the season to Warrensburg-Latham 5-2 in the opening round of the IHSA Class 1A W-L Regional Tuesday, ending Unity's season at 9-9-2.

The Rockets lost by five to the Cardinals the first time the teams met in September and then fell 3-1 to them weeks later in the Okaw Valley Conference Tournament title game.

Unity coach Michel Stringer knew his team would need to be at its best against the Cardinals to have a chance Tuesday. The Rockets played aggressively, but so did the Cardinals.

"In other games that we've lost we've played more defensive," Stringer said. "Today we were really aggressive even though we were losing."

W-L scored two of its first three goals on penalty kicks to go up 3-0 seconds into the second half. A fast-break goal by Eric Wenzel pulled the Rockets back within two immediately following the second PK, but W-L returned with a header goal of its own to recover the three-goal lead.

Patrick Mannon scored Unity's second goal with four minutes left to end the scoring.

Stringer felt the early penalty kicks gave the host Cardinals the momentum. He felt the Rockets played W-L pretty evenly if not for their two PK scores.

"I don't think they were having an A-game day," he said. "When we played them at Okaw both teams were having an A-game day. I don't think they were today, but we weren't at our best, either."

As a whole, Stringer said afterward he was proud of the Rockets and the season they had. Unity won four times last year, and their nine wins this year were among the most in school history.

"Nine's not bad; I wish there were more," Stringer said. "I think there could have been a lot more, but you take things the way they are."

One thing the Rockets had to deal with was late-season injuries.

Unity lost starter Gino Giannetti to an ACL tear earlier this month, and goalie Ryan Reitmeier was injured in last week's regular season finale. Unity also had several players miss action with minor dings.

"The injuries hurt us," Stringer said. "I think we were starting to play really well and then we had a lot of kids go down."

Week eight football predictions

St. Joseph-Ogden (5-2) at Orion (3-4), 3 p.m. Saturday.

Last meeting: None on record.

One more win. That's all it will take for SJ-O to clinch its 20th consecutive playoff berth. SJ-O hit a snag earlier this season with consecutive losses in weeks three and four, but the Spartans have rebounded nicely and are streaking toward a 7-2 finish. SJ-O went 7-2 last year and earned a first-round home game. If the Spartans can finish with an identical record this year, another first-round home game is a distinct possibility. But, the Spartans won't get to 7-2 without another test. Orion is a lot better than most 3-4 teams.

The Chargers opened the season with high hopes coming off a 10-2 season last fall. Things started well with some early wins before injuries decimated their lineup and sunk them to four quick losses. Now they have their backs up against the wall, needing wins in week eight and nine to return to the postseason.  And the Chargers just got back their starting quarterback and tailback from injuries, so their offense is much improved. SJ-O will need to be ready for the Chargers best shot. I think the Spartans will be.

St. Joseph-Ogden 34, Orion 20.

Clinton (2-5) at No. 3 Unity (6-1), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: Unity def. Clinton, 46-6 (Oct. 16, 2009).

The last two weeks have been tight wins for Unity. The Rockets have picked up consecutive wins on game-winning field goals by Cody Payne, and could very easily be 4-3 instead of 6-1. But luckily for the Rockets, they aren't. They do have a playoff-clinching six wins, they are on top in the OVC black and they do have an inside track at an 8-1 finish. Sure the last two wins haven't been pretty, but there's no reason the Rockets should dwell on that. Unity needs to learn from what its went through the past two weeks and keep getting better.

Clinton gives the Rockets a great chance to do that. The Maroons are better than they were last year, but Clinton is still far from a playoff team. The Maroons can throw the ball but can't really pass block, and their rushing attack is flawed by a lack of a premier back to handle 20-plus carries a game. The Rockets need a pick-me-up, and this is their chance. Hopefully Unity comes out focused and really works on correcting the mistakes they made against St. Teresa and Monticello. It would be nice to see the Rockets hit the playoffs going strong.

No. 3 Unity 42, Clinton 13.

East Central (3-4) at Tri-County (6-1), 7 p.m. Friday

Last meeting: Tri-County def. East Central, 38-7 (Oct. 23, 2009).

For the third week in a row, East Central heads into a game needing a win to keep its faint playoff hopes alive. The Panthers are 2-0 in their last two must-wins, but this week's game against Tri-County is easily the toughest of the three. The Titans are the second best team in the LOVC and have a chance to make some noise in the Class 1A playoffs. East Central is a team simply trying to get in, while the Titans are playing for seeding and a first-round home game.

East Central can't turn the ball over or be victim to any unforced mistakes to win this game. The Panthers have the players to put some points on the board against Tri-County. If their offense plays smart and does that, this can be a very close game. Tri-County's offense isn't dominant, so the Panthers' defense can keep them in the game. It all comes down to how much the Panthers can score. They'll need to step it up.

Tri-County 28, East Central 16.

Week seven football predictions

St. Joseph-Ogden (4-2) at Watseka (1-5), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: St. Joseph-Ogden def. Watseka, 30-0 (Oct. 9, 2009).

After last week's win over St. Thomas More, the SJ-O football team is riding high entering this Friday's game at Watseka. SJ-O needs one more win to become playoff eligible and two to clinch its 20th straight berth. Watseka gives the Spartans a perfect chance to pick up No. 5. The Warriors lost several key players from last season's team to graduation in May and weren't able to fill their losses. This season has been a long one for the Warriors.

Pardon the cliche, SJ-O should "get off the bus running" against the Warriors. New quarterback Louis Acklin will probably get the chance to attempt 8 to 10 passes to stay sharp, but there will be no need for the Spartans to run any more. The Warriors aren't going to be able to stop the SJ-O running game. Tailbacks Jake Bock and Austin Allen should expect 15-20 carries a piece as the Spartans roll to their fifth win.

St. Joseph-Ogden 47, Watseka 7.

No. 3 Unity (5-1) at Monticello (4-2), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: Unity def. Monticello, 51-34 (Oct. 9, 2009).

A win in this game will give Unity an overwhelming edge in the race for the OVC black division title. The Rockets' last two opponents after Friday are 4-8, meaning a win here gives the Rockets an easy path to 8-1. The Sages have struggled this year, but have won enough games to put themselves in sight of another playoff berth. Monticello has Unity and St. Teresa over the next two weeks. The Sages need to beat one of the two to clinch a berth.

I don't know if Monticello can do that against Unity. The Sages were a passing offense last year in coach Cully Welter's new scheme, but they've been forced to run the ball without a viable arm in 2010. To put it bluntly, Unity stops the run. The Rockets haven't given up much on the ground all season and if St. Teresa and Tuscola couldn't run on them, Monticello probably won't. Well, not enough to win.

No. 3 Unity 37, Monticello 14.

Martinsville (1-5) at East Central (2-4), 7 p.m. Friday.

Last meeting: East Central def. Martinsville, 28-13 (Oct. 16, 2009).

Last week's win was big for the Panthers. With another win Friday, they could really make this season interesting. The Panthers have played two of the three best teams in the Little Okaw Valley in Villa Grove and Arcola. The next best team, Tri-County, is up next on the schedule in week eight. The chances are slim, but if East Central can beat Martinsville Friday the Panthers can still play their way into the playoffs.

And looking at the Blue Streaks, this week's game favors the Panthers. Martinsville hasn't been able to score much this season and their defense has routinely been gashed. The Panthers' D has been equally disappointing, but in most games, the Panthers have at least been able to move the ball. If East Central can avoid major turnovers issues, the Panthers can probably outscore Martinsville.

East Central 38, Martinsville 27.