Class 3A bracket predictions

CHAMPAIGN — Well folks here it is. This is my bracket for the 3A football playoffs. I chose not to predict the state championship game because it's just too far ahead. Truthfully, I don't have a lot of faith in my picks in the bottom half of the bracket, but I had to pick someone. Enjoy the games everyone.

What the computer says: Class 1A-4A simulations

CHAMPAIGN — Utilizing the Massey Ratings football simulation system, here are the projected playoff brackets for Class 1A through Class 4A (all of the teams for the Okaw Valley and Sangamon Valley Conferences) for the next five weeks. As you can see, it should be a good first weekend for both conferences, and the Okaw is projected to display its dominance throughout the next month with two state finalists and five quarterfinalists.

(Editor's Note: My 3A playoff projections will be posted online Friday afternoon before the Oakwood at SJ-O game. And remember, these are simply computer projections, they don't guarantee anything. Most scores will not mirror these projections.)

Round One Playoff Predictions

Oakwood (6-3) at St. Joseph-Ogden (7-2)

Last meeting: St. Joseph-Ogden def. Oakwood, 66-0 (Oct. 26, 2001).

My projections are going to be a little shorter today than previous weeks because I'm in the process of working on a computer simulation of the first three rounds of the playoffs, which I hope to finish after lunch today.

In this game, I see the Spartans beating up on the Comets just like they did the last time they met. SJ-O might not be 66-0 winners (I highly, highly doubt they will be), but they should jump in front early and roll past their neighboring school.

St. Joseph-Ogden 34, Oakwood 13.

Robinson (5-4) at No. 4 Unity (9-0)

Last meeting: Unity def. Robinson, 32-7 (Aug. 29, 2003).

Robinson is better than most 5-4 teams, but it shouldn't matter too much to a Unity team that hasn't been stopped all season. The Rockets can score pretty much at will when they're going well and the Rockets' balanced offensive attack is tough to scheme against.

It make take the Rockets a quarter or two to get rolling, but once they do the Maroons won't have any way to slow them down. Too much offense.

No. 4 Unity 46, Robinson 16.

One man's playoff projections

CHAMPAIGN — The 2009 regular season isn't quite over yet, but it's close enough to its conclusion to allow me to make some playoff predictions. I've done some research and tried to decide who will make the IHSA Class 3A tournament when the field is announced in two days, and I come to you now with my results.

The playoff points listed below are through eight weeks and thus not official, nor are the win-loss records, as I have tried to predict the results of Friday's games. As you can see, 35 points is the breaking point for teams in 3A, and that same break is evident in 1A and 2A. Assuming most teams are going to see their points improve after week nine, I expect 37 or 38 points to be the IHSA's acceptance number for 5-4 teams on Saturday. Thus, Macomb, Genoa-Kingston and Columbia still have a shot with winning records, though they'll be at the mercy of the IHSA.

And even though these predictions are anything but official, there's a pretty exciting match up looming in quarterfinals ... What a game that would be.

Class 3A Playoff Teams (441.00 to 615.45)

 RANKS    TEAM                            PTS   W-L   ENROLL

  1   C   Stillman Valley                 34    9-0   601.00

  2   C   Carthage (Illini West)          32    9-0   482.00

  3   C   Greenville                      32    9-0   587.00

  4   C   Sesser-Valier                   32    9-0   547.00

  5   C   Unity                           31    9-0   476.00

  6   C   Wilmington                      30    9-0   485.00

  7   C   St. Thomas More                 29    9-0   615.45

  8   C   Sherrard                        27    9-0   534.00

  9   C   Carterville                     33    8-1   532.00

 10   C   Rockford Christian              33    8-1   575.85

 11   C   Pittsfield                      31    8-1   536.00

 12   C   DuQuoin                         30    8-1   460.00

 13   C   Mt. Carmel                      44    7-2   613.00

 14   C   St. Joseph-Ogden                38    7-2   450.00

 15   C   Monticello                      36    7-2   541.00

 16   C   Auburn                          35    7-2   441.00

 17   C   Breese Central                  34    7-2   593.00

 18   C   Pana                            34    7-2   489.00

 19   C   Fairfield                       34    7-2   507.00

 20   C   Decatur St. Teresa              32    7-2   496.65

 21   C   Winnebago                       30    7-2   575.00

 22   C   Camp Point Central              30    7-2   497.00

 23   C   Aurora Christian                39    6-3   612.15

 24   C   Oakwood                         38    6-3   551.00

 25   C   Braidwood Reed-Custer           37    6-3   604.00

 26   C   Riverton                        37    6-3   476.00

 27   C   Sterling Newman                 35    6-3   468.60

 28   C   Anna-Jonesboro                  32    6-3   562.00

 29       Oregon                          40    5-4   568.00

 30       Robinson                        38    5-4   504.00

 31       Nashville                       36    5-4   549.00

 32       Hillsboro                       35    5-4   605.00

 33       Macomb                          34    5-4   587.00

 34       Genoa-Kingston                  32    5-4   608.00

 35       Columbia                        30    5-4   599.00

North Bracket

No. 8 Oregon (5-4) at No. 1 Stillman Valley (9-0)

No. 5 Winnebago (7-2) at No. 4 Rockford Christian (8-1)

No. 7 Sterling Newman (6-3) at No. 2 Wilmington (9-0)

No. 6 Aurora Christian (6-3) at No. 3 Sherrard (9-0)

East Bracket

No. 8 Robinson (5-4) at No. 1 Unity (9-0)

No. 5 St. Teresa (7-2) at No. 4 Monticello (7-2)

No. 7 Braidwood Reed-Custer (6-3) at No. 2 St. Thomas More (9-0)

No. 6 Oakwood (6-3) at No. 3 St. Joseph-Ogden (7-2)

South Bracket

No. 8 Nashville (5-4) at No. 1 Sesser-Valier (9-0)

No. 5 Fairfield (7-2) at No. 4 Mount Carmel (7-2)

No. 7 Anna-Jonesboro (6-3) at No. 2 Carterville (8-1)

No. 6 Breese Central (7-2) at No. 3 DuQuoin (8-1)

West Bracket

No. 8 Hillsboro (5-4) at No. 1 Illini West (9-0)

No. 5 Pana (7-2) at No. 4 Auburn (7-2)

No. 7 Riverton (6-3) at No. 2 Greenville (9-0)

No. 6 Camp Point Central (7-2) at No. 3 Pittsfield (8-1)

Week nine football predictions

St. Joseph-Ogden (6-2) at PBL (3-5)

Last meeting: St. Joseph-Ogden def. PBL, 26-22 (Oct. 24, 2008).

As we enter the final week of the 2009 season, I find it harder and harder to keep my focus on the regular season. The playoffs are here and I'm excited. I want to see the pairings and get to work. I think most of the area playoff teams feel the same way, but they know they still have work to do in week nine. For SJ-O that work is finishing off a 7-2 regular season and making a final push for an opening round home game.

I think the Spartans should come out focused and ready to go this Friday. SJ-O has been ready to play for every game this season, and they should be doubly excited for the Panthers with the postseason just around the corner.

St. Joseph-Ogden 37, PBL 7.

Shelbyville (2-6) at No. 4 Unity (8-0)

Last meeting: Unity def. Shelbyville, 33-6 (Oct. 24, 2008).

Shelbyville's been better lately, but Unity is one of top-ranked teams in 3A for a reason. When the Rockets take off, no one has been able to catch them. I think the Rams will see that first hand Friday.

Expect Unity's defense to come out fired up and do all it can to end its seven-game opening touchdown allowed streak, and don't be surprised to see the offense respond with some quick scores of their own. The Rockets are shooting for some big goals in 2009, finishing the regular season 9-0 is just a stepping stone.

Unity 46, Shelbyville 7.

SJ-O honors senior runners

ST. JOSEPH — The Spartans' cross country team honored its senior student-athletes during the school's football game last Friday against Watseka. Here are photos from the event.

Week eight football predictions

Carlyle (1-6) vs. St. Joseph-Ogden (5-2)

Last meeting: St. Joseph-Ogden def. Carlyle, 35-7 (Oct. 17, 2008).

SJ-O will go for its second shutout in a row and fourth in six weeks when it takes on the Indians Saturday. A win would guarantee the Spartans a playoff berth for another year, and I think the team will be quick to grab control of the game. Carlyle is having another down year and has already been eliminated from postseason contention. I don't think this one ends well.

The Spartans know how close they are to the playoffs and they can taste it. The team's been dominant on defense for several weeks and they should tee off against the Indians.

St. Joseph-Ogden 48, Carlyle 0.

No. 4 Unity (7-0) at Clinton (1-6)

Last meeting: Unity def. Clinton, 26-0 (Oct. 17, 2008).

The Unity football team is an impressive 7-0 this season despite falling behind early in six of their last seven games. Unity hasn't scored first since the opening week of the season, and the Rockets have trailed in the second quarter of games in each of the last two weeks. Coach Scott Hamilton has been proud of his team's ability to respond after slow starts, but would like to see the team pitch a first quarter shutout — and I think they do this week.

Clinton can't score well at all and the Rockets know they're on the wrong side of the early scoring summary. I think the Rockets' defense steps up against the Maroons early Friday and doesn't look back.

No. 4 Unity 48, Clinton 0.

Week seven football predictions

Watseka (4-2) at St. Joseph-Ogden (4-2)

Last meeting: Watseka def. St. Joseph-Ogden, 47-14 (Oct. 10, 2008).

Both SJ-O and Watseka enter this game off losses and looking to right the ship with their fifth win as the playoffs grow near. The Spartans and Warriors both have a shot at grabbing a postseason berth with five wins this season, though its possible the Warriors would need six due to a lack of playoff points. Either way, this is a big game for both schools. It's much easier to get to week 10 at 5-2 than at 4-3.

I think the Spartans have the edge in this game due to their defense play the last several weeks. SJ-O has given up just 29 points over their past four games and has shut outs in weeks three and five. The Warriors can score points, but they can't stop anybody. If SJ-O can slow them down early, the Warriors will struggle to respond.

St. Joseph-Ogden 34, Watseka 19.

Monticello (5-1) at No. 4 Unity (6-0)

Last meeting: Unity def. Monticello, 54-29 (Oct. 10, 2008).

Just when the Rockets think they've picked up their signature win of the year, another huge game shows up on the schedule just seven days later. The Rockets will need to beat the Sages to maintain their lead in the OVC black and continue on their way to their first conference title. The Sages will be looking to lock up a postseason berth after going 0-9 in 2008 and missing the playoffs at 5-4 in 2007.

I think Unity could be in for a closer game this Friday then last Friday. St. Teresa was very well coached, but the Bulldogs were too small and wore down easy. The Sages have size and speed, and their passing attack is the best in the OVC. If Unity can jump in front early and avoid giving up the quick score they've been struggling with I think they win by double digits. But if they don't, this could be a dog fight.  My pick is a little in between.

No. 4 Unity 41, Monticello 28.